Our CHF Desk publishes a timely commentary on the SNB’s quarterly monetary policy decisions, covering key takeaways, market implications, and forward-looking expectations.
At a glance
- The latest re-calibration of monetary policy by the major central banks with interest rate hikes of 25 basis points by both the ECB and the Fed in September as well as further tightening steps expected by the market has not prompted the SNB to change course.
- The key factors here are the persistently subdued core inflation and the fact that the surprisingly strong growth figures in the second quarter of 2026 are largely due to one-off effects.
- From a domestic perspective, there is thus still no convincing argument for a rapid tightening of monetary policy.
- Nevertheless, there could be room for monetary policy-related manoeuvre if the Swiss franc continues to weaken.
- While we are still not expecting an interest rate hike in December 2026, we expect a cautious normalisation to 50 basis points from 2027. While the SNB is thus raising the key interest rate, it is not moving into restrictive areas.
