Perspectives Economics provides monthly updates from our research team, offering comprehensive analysis of global economic trends, policy developments, and macroeconomic indicators.

Outlook economics February 2025

Key findings

  • The first days of Donald Trump in office: much noise and increasing uncertainty
  • Europe: rising sentiment among businesses and consumers triggers optimism
  • China: tariffs will come but to a lesser extent than feared in the worst-case scenario

Chart of the month

graphic

Following two years of virtual stagnation, an output gap has opened in the eurozone, which means that the capacities of the economy are not fully utilised. We expect growth to normalise in 2025 and 2026, but this will not suffice to close the output gap in the eurozone. This is also the case to a lesser extent in Switzerland. Inflation pressure in Europe is therefore set to remain low in 2025 and 2026. We expect growth close to potential in the USA in 2025 and 2026, with the restrictive monetary policy neutralising the expansive fiscal policy. The output gap in the USA should therefore remain at around 0%. 

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