Perspectives Economics provides monthly updates from our research team, offering comprehensive analysis of global economic trends, policy developments, and macroeconomic indicators.

The economic outlook in November/December 2024

Key findings

  • USA: growth momentum remains robust, but there are still signs of weakness on the labour market.
  • Europe: slower expected recovery in private consumption provides explanation for weak momentum.
  • China: stimulus measures do not unleash a spending boom, but reduce downside risks.

Chart of the month

Household savings rate (incl. average values 2000-2019) for Eurozone, France and Germany

A central assumption in our base case at the beginning of the year was the end of the purchasing power crisis in Europe. Indeed, real wages are rising again for the first time since 2021. In surveys, consumers are also confirming an improvement in their own financial situation. Nevertheless, consumption is only slowly gaining momentum. The savings rate shows that households have set aside an above-average amount of resources since the pandemic. In France, the difference between the current savings rate and the long-term average currently amounts to around 2.0% of gross domestic product. Job security concerns and the rise in interest rates may explain the high propensity to save.

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