Perspectives Economics provides monthly updates from our research team, offering comprehensive analysis of global economic trends, policy developments, and macroeconomic indicators.
Outlook economics August 2026
Key findings
- USA: continued solid growth and too high inflation
- Germany: recovery becoming increasingly broad-based
- France: success in exporting electricity
- Switzerland: effect from sporting event likely higher than previous FIFA World Cups
- United Kingdom: new prime minister with many plans but few details on fiscal policy
- China: improved prospects for the second half of the year, but the economy remains divided
Chart of the month
The opening of the Strait of Hormuz was only short-lived, but temporarily brought significantly lower oil prices in June and resulted in inflation figures coming in lower than expected. With the re-escalation of the war in Iran in July, we revised our energy price assumptions up again for the remainder of the year. There is still significant uncertainty regarding the outcome of the conflict and its timing. However, as neither side should have any interest in a prolonged blockade, de-escalation and a partial normalisation of shipping remains our base case scenario. All in all, therefore, there are hardly any changes to our inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
