Perspectives Economics provides monthly updates from our research team, offering comprehensive analysis of global economic trends, policy developments, and macroeconomic indicators.
The economic outlook in October 2024
Chart of the month
Ahead of the US presidential election, business uncertainty usually increases dramatically and then quickly recedes once the result – whatever the outcome – is known. We expect this pattern to be repeated in 2024, which means the situation could ease somewhat after the election, especially on the labour market. This has cooled in the US mainly for economic reasons, but the high political uncertainty has probably contributed to the current weakness. In the best-case scenario, the pattern of 2016 will even be repeated, with clear reluctance to commit to new hires in the election year, followed by a recovery in 2017.
