Perspectives Emerging Markets offers quarterly updates from our research team, providing in-depth analysis of economic developments, market trends, and investment opportunities in emerging economies.
Third quarter 2026
Key findings
- Oil importers breathe a sigh of relief due to the gradual recovery of the oil supply, especially in South Asia
- Emerging markets are growing more strongly than expected, supported by commodity and tech exporters
- China: High-tech expansion consolidates, domestic economy waiting for real estate sector to stabilise
Number in focus
The Taiwanese economy grew by 14.6% year-on-year in the first quarter – the strongest increase since the second quarter of 1987. This was driven by exceptionally high demand for AI-related hardware, which boosted exports by more than 30% and consolidated their role as a key growth driver. The short-term outlook remains positive, while risks are building up in the medium term: a strong export focus on semiconductors, industrial production’s growing reliance on AI sectors, and ongoing weakness in non-AI-related industries. A similar picture is emerging in South Korea; more on page 2.
Chart in focus
Emerging markets were considered particularly vulnerable at the start of the Iran war, but – as the chart in focus shows – they have repeatedly surprised on the upside. Commodity-exporting economies benefited from improved terms of trade and a more stable current account balance, while the AI boom in the US is driving hardware produced in Asia. With the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran and the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the prospects for countries that were previously especially vulnerable (India and the Philippines, in particular) are brightening.
