Perspectives Emerging Markets offers quarterly updates from our research team, providing in-depth analysis of economic developments, market trends, and investment opportunities in emerging economies.
Emerging Markets outlook in the fourth quarter 2024
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India’s GDP growth rate was above 7% for a full five consecutive quarters before falling slightly to 6.7% in the second quarter of 2024. India thus remains the fastest-growing major economy in the world. The main reason for the slight slowdown in growth was the presidential election in the second quarter, which led to a temporary halt in government spending. Consumption and investment, on the other hand, remained robust and should continue to be supported by diversification efforts that are diverting investors away from China.
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Given weak domestic demand due to the real estate crisis (see page 3), external demand has been a tailwind for China so far, but this is likely to ease somewhat with weakening demand from the US. However, China has diversified away from the US. Exports to Southeast Asia have surpassed those to the US, while those to Latin America are increasing rapidly. As a result, dependency on a single region has decreased significantly, which is one of the explanations for the country’s robust export performance so far.
