USA: Early warning indicators continue to point to an economic slowdown. Eurozone: Despite falling inflation, it is still too early for the ECB to give the all clear. China: After weak growth in the second quarter, the hoped-for stimulus package has failed to materialise.

Chart of the month

graphic shows Delinquency rates of US consumer loans

A recession will only begin in the US when private consumption, which has been robust to date, cools. While leading indicators from industry and the housing market have been on red for some time, the problem with consumption is that many indicators do not turn until the recession has already begun. Probably the best leading indicator is consumer credit delinquencies, which have in the past spiked up one to two years before the onset of a recession. Since October 2021, credit delinquencies have been increasing from low levels. We therefore expect higher interest rates and tighter credit standards to increasingly act as a drag on consumption as well. 

This may also be of interest to you

Research Reports

Emerging-3840x2160

Emerging Markets

Perspectives Emerging Markets Annual outlook 2024

21.12.2023

Research Reports

Konjunktur-3840x2160

Economics

Perspectives Economics annual outlook 2024

21.12.2023

Research Reports

Finanzen-3840x2160

Financial Markets

Perspectives Financial Markets annual outlook 2024

21.12.2023

Research Reports

Finanzen-3840x2160

Financial Markets

Perspectives Financial Markets November/December 2023

09.11.2023