USA: a good start to the new year, but additional pressure on the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates. Eurozone: inflationary pressure from the energy side is easing, but second-round effects have intensified. China: the economy continues to recover, driven by an upturn in the services sector.

Chart of the month

graphic shows expected increase of workforce over 12 months

The US labour market is buzzing, making a recession appear unlikely. The problem, however, is that employment and unemployment figures are lagging behind the economy. Looking ahead, the large number of job openings does not yet point to a marked turnaround on the labour market, although the official figures paint a better picture than alternative indicators using online job advertisements. What is interesting, however, is that medium-term employment plans have normalised according to a Conference Board survey of CEOs, and US SMEs are also becoming more cautious again according to the NFIB survey. This suggests a certain amount of easing on the US labour market. 

This may also be of interest to you

Research

Konjunktur-3840x2160

Economics

Perspectives Economics annual outlook 2024

21.12.2023

Research

Emerging-3840x2160

Emerging Markets

Perspectives Emerging Markets Annual outlook 2024

21.12.2023

Research

Finanzen-3840x2160

Financial Markets

Perspectives Financial Markets annual outlook 2024

21.12.2023

Research

Konjunktur-3840x2160

Economics

Perspectives Economics November/December 2023

09.11.2023