Our medium-term baseline scenario includes the start of a mild recession in the US next year. China’s expected abandonment of its zero-Covid policy from 2023 is positive for Europe and Japan. Inflation has likely peaked in the US, Europe will follow with a time lag in Q3.
Chart of the month
All scenarios related to inflation and the further economic trend in Europe depend to a large extent on the war in Ukraine and the gas supply. Importing countries in Europe are aiming for independence from Russian gas supplies. This entails creating prerequisites for importing liquid gas. In the short term, it must be ensured that natural gas storage facilities are sufficiently full before the next heating period. The level of Germany’s natural gas storage facilities reflects the success of efforts made to date: as of 29 May, the storage facilities were 48.4% full. This is still slightly below-average for the time of year.