USA: Clear rise in wage pressure. Eurozone: Unlike in the years after 2009, fiscal policy is having a pro-cyclical effect. Switzerland: A return to normal for shopping tourism as well.
Chart of the month
The "coronavirus winter" was long and harsh but, as expected, did not bring a repeat of the economic upheavals of spring 2020. Between October 2020 and March 2021, economic output stagnated or declined slightly in most developed economies, which is likely to be the case in Switzerland, with the USA showing the most dynamic performance. Both US and Swiss GDP came close to pre-crisis levels in the first quarter of 2021 and are expected to outperform them in the second quarter. The European countries, especially those on the periphery, are still a long way off this and underperformed expectations in the first quarter, which is why we revised our forecasts for the Eurozone slightly downwards.