Tourism season to additionally benefit economies in Europe suffering comparably less from COVID-19. We remain more optimistic than consensus for the US economy, where data has surprised very positively. The re-acceleration of COVID-19 cases is unlikely to trigger significant new lockdowns in developed markets.
Chart of the month
The summer holidays are just around the corner, and many people might spend vacations in their home country. This is a major problem for Southern Europe, a “net exporter of summer holidays”. Without international travel, Greece and Portugal would lose around 20% and 10%, respectively, of their third-quarter GDP. The big beneficiary is Northern Europe. Belgium GDP would increase by 3% if all Belgians vacationed in their home country in summer. On an absolute basis, Germany’s travel current account deficit is most spectacular (EUR –18 bn in the third quarter 2019). Promising for Switzerland: Google Trends data show that searches in Germany for holidays in Switzerland have surged since borders were reopened.