New containment measures to break the second wave trigger downward revisions to our growth forecasts. The US elections do not alter our economic outlook; the latter is clouded due to the resurging pandemic. Fast and widespread availability of a vaccine would be a major game changer next year.
Chart of the month
Europe is implementing new nationwide containment measures after the second COVID-19 wave took it by surprise. These measures will leave a mark not only on mobility indicators but on overall economic activity in the fourth quarter. The northern hemisphere will have to go through this first “corona winter” without a vaccine, despite the recent positive news. The impact will be larger in the UK and in France compared to Germany and Switzerland. The former two countries are almost back in a spring-style lockdown, with the important difference that schools, factories and construction sites remain open. Germany opted for a less strict entertainment lockdown, while Switzerland is still mostly leaving strict measures up to the cantons.
