Substantial upward revisions in the consensus GDP growth forecasts in the US and Switzerland. Partial expiry of fiscal stimulus measures dampens the pace of economic recovery in the UK and elsewhere. New Japanese prime minister likely to stick to predecessor’s economic policy

Chart of the month

Economics_Chart_1020_EN

The world economy has recovered since May. In the US and Switzerland, “peak pessimism” is clearly behind us, with consensus forecasts for 2020 GDP growth moving up and the gap to our own projections narrowing this month. It is becoming increasingly clear that Switzerland is getting away from the COVID-19 crisis with a black eye. Yet, the recession has a lasting impact and we think it is important to highlight that even Switzerland’s GDP will not return to its pre-crisis level before the final quarter 2021. In our base case scenario, GDP in Switzerland will fall three percentage points short of its underlying trend seen from 2010 until 2019. Welcome to the “97% economy”!

This may also be of interest to you

Research Reports

Konjunktur-3840x2160

Economics

Perspectives Economics November/December 2021

11.11.2021

Research Reports

Finanzen-3840x2160

Financial Markets

Perspectives Financial Markets November/December 2021

11.11.2021

Research Reports

Back view image of young lady outdoors walking on bicycle on the street.

Real Assets

The Swiss Life Asset Managers’ European Thematic Cities Index

19.10.2021

Research Reports

Finanzen-3840x2160

Financial Markets

Perspectives Financial Markets October 2021

08.10.2021