In our base case, a gradual recovery of the world economy is about to start. China to lead the recovery followed by the US and Switzerland. Where in place, short-term work compensation programmes provide an efficient safety net.
Chart of the month
Many countries are shifting the focus to a gradual easing of lockdown measures with the hope of support from medical progress. First, a much faster increase in diagnostic testing capacity is needed. Second, reliable antibody tests would allow estimation of the immunisation rate. Yet, many of these tests have not yet been authorised and first studies hint at below 100% reliability. Third, great hope is with existing drugs as treatments, but the recent news flow has been mostly disappointing. Finally, a vaccine would be the real game changer. Experts are hoping to develop one at record speed. Considering the large uncertainties and the average development time of ten years, many have, however, cautioned against too much optimism.
